Bob Elliot has a piece up in the Sun talking to a 'baseball evaluator' about what the Blue Jays should be doing. Among the points:
"The Blue Jays have the money, their best option is Heath Bell," said one evaluator familiar with the closing landscape.
Oh please no. Bell pitched well for the Padres, in the best pitcher's park in baseball, in the easiest division in baseball. He's 34 and his numbers have been falling off, as often happens to pitchers moving into their mid-30's. Can you imagine giving him a 4-year, B.J. Ryan type contract? I don't know who Elliot's evaluator is but I hope he isn't working for the Jays.
The Jays have explored trading for relievers Huston Street of the Colorado Rockies and Oakland's Andrew Bailey. Carlos Marmol of the Cubs is also available.
I like all 3 better than Bell.
Insiders say Jays president Paul Beeston is not a fan of the current posting system in place which sees teams pay anywhere from $50-to-$100 million to the Nippon Ham Fighters for just the right to negotiate with right-hander Yu Darvish. Consider the Jays interest lukewarm.
You figure Beeston would be going around telling folks how much he wants Darvish and how the Jays plan bid high on him? Course not. Does that mean that the Jays aren't interested in Yu? Nope.
The New York Yankees are interested in right-hander Kyle Drabek...
Uh huh. I imagine a lot of teams would be interested in Drabek hoping that the Jays might be willing to sell low. I doubt they will. And no, the Yankees won't offer Jesus Montero for Kyle, they ain't stupid.
The Royals (are) looking at Colby Rasmus of the Jays.
They better be willing to give up a lot. We'd almost have to get a CF back somewhere. Anthony Gose isn't ready and I don't think we want to go into next year with Rajai Davis.
The Phillies have discussed possible ways on how to re-acquire catcher Travis D'Araund from the Jays. Good luck.
I'm sure there isn't a team in baseball that wouldn't like to find a way to get Travis. He's a pretty terrific prospect. We'd have to get a heck of a lot back.
0 recs | 147 comments
Rasmus to the Royals?
What an odd proposition. AA will always look for a way to get greater value, but it’s not like Rasmus built up his value in the two months he played for the Jays. Still, the Jays are in a better negotiating position than the La Russa-compromised Cardinals were, and the Royals do have a deep and interesting minor league system, with Wil Myers, Cheslor Cuthbert and Jake Odorizzi all being good potential centrepieces to a trade.
gabrielsyme - November 29, 2011
I think this would be an interesting route to explore
Why not play with the idea? As you mentioned the Royals are loaded with young, talented players. Imagine if we could somehow pry Myers out of their system.
One interesting question I have for all my fellow banterers is:
Would you trade Drabek, TD and Gose back to Philly for Doc right now?
Considering the respective positions of our Jays and of the Phillies, with all the questions surrounding Hamels’ extension trading Doc to replenish their system with ready or near-MLB prospects all the while freeing up some cash to sign Hamels plus we all know our need for a front-end starter whom just happens to be locked up for a few more years…
Kind of crazy to think about but it actually makes some sense on both sides.
David Ball - November 29, 2011
Hamels for D'arnaud?
Plus whatever pieces make it balance out. Maybe the jays demand to negotiate an extension first.
the jerkstore - November 29, 2011
lol
benk - November 29, 2011
Blergh
Pikachu - November 29, 2011 via mobile
It really doesn't make any sense
Philly has a team to win now – that’s why they paid big money to get Papelbon, even though that contract could look really bad in a couple years.
It makes no sense to give up a frontline starter in his prime when you are a Worls Series contender. Sure d’Arnaud could help them, and relatively soon – but only if they could get him for pieces that aren;t needed right now. We’re talking guys in the low minors, and possible a headliner like Dom Brown, who Philly apparently isn’t terribly inclined to give a full time gig to.
MjwW - November 29, 2011
Rather not
Pikachu - November 29, 2011 via mobile
The Royals just traded their CF (Melky Cabrera) to make room for CF prospect Lorenzo Cain as well… doesn’t really make sense.
Cam Oegema - November 29, 2011
You know, 2 or 3 years ago I might have read through that and probably found that useful
But now that I’ve spent more time here, I realize that all those words Mr. Elliot wrote adds up to pretty much nothing in terms of meaning.
Minor Leaguer - November 29, 2011
^
^
^
TonyFernandezSavedMyLife - November 29, 2011
Beat writing in the off season is just way too ridiculous.
Siver - November 29, 2011
You just summaized half the sportswriting/talking in one sentence…
The other half (or parts of it) is interesting and insightful, but (and especially since Twitter came to being) it seems that there’s a lot of space to fill with hot air…
HESS2479 - November 29, 2011
Good thing we never do that kind of writing here.Minor Leaguer - November 29, 2011
closers
I do see us going after someone who has closing experience and potential (and perhaps 2; one to set up and take over in case of injury / long-term). It won’t be Bell, Madson or Papelbon (even if he were still available). It’s not likely to be Bailey or K-Rod, as the price seems too high. I imagine we’ll consider Francisco Cordero, Jonathan Broxton (set-up), and if Cordero signs elsewhere or asks for too much we’ll try to trade for Marmol (if he is really available) or Street. I wonder how Chad Cordero is doing in his recovery from surgery. Does anyone know if we still have him signed?
spud77 - November 29, 2011
Given the number of closers on the market
I think there’s a good chance the market really cools down, and the Jays get decent value for K-Rod or Cordero or Madson near the end of the off-season. There can’t be that many teams that still think that any closer, even Papelbon is worth 4/50 with a vesting option. Of course, it’s rightly said that no-one ever went hungry betting on the stupidity of their fellow men.
gabrielsyme - November 29, 2011
K-Rod
Was offered arbitration by Milwaukee so he’s not likely to take a pay cut. If he doesn’t like the offers he’s getting, he’ll take arbitration and make his $10 mil or so next year.
T.Haynes - November 29, 2011
Markets develop
K-Rod would not be the first player to overestimate the demand for his services. Anyways, while I said there’s a good chance the market for top relievers deflates, there’s probably a better chance it doesn’t.
gabrielsyme - November 29, 2011
Chad Cordero
THe Jays released him back in May
MjwW - November 29, 2011
Francisco Cordero
Though, looking at his stats, he looks to be well into his decline.
gabrielsyme - November 29, 2011
also looking like he'll cost +$10M a year
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
we should of merged frank francisco and chad cordero whenwe had the chanceMinor Leaguer - November 29, 2011
should have
:P
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
sarcasm font :P
Minor Leaguer - November 29, 2011
no it's should of
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
Nope.
Shift - November 29, 2011
should of
know have
support are troops
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
ugh
morans
benk - November 29, 2011
Favourite.
Shift - November 29, 2011
Are children our are future
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
Probably this way
Pronouced like “should of”
Written like “should’ve” (for should have)
siggian - November 30, 2011
god you guys our boring
Pikachu - November 30, 2011
gobbledy gook
Elliot’s speculation is flighty.. but there are a couple of nuggets in there if they are true. One being Marmol’s availability, and the other being the Orioles’ hiring of Gary Rajsich as their scouting director. That may be related to the Jays’ earlier hiring of Chuck LaMar.
spud77 - November 29, 2011
If Gobbledy Gook is the same as Caa Caa
I agree whole heartily
bankertuck - November 29, 2011
something like that
but where I’m from caacaa means s**t so I didn’t want to get censored ;)
spud77 - November 29, 2011
I think that I come from the same place…
But “gobbledy gook” has a better ring to it.
HESS2479 - November 29, 2011
Rajsich used to work with Dan Duquette and the O
Damaso's Burnt Shirt - November 29, 2011
O's need a scouting director since their last one took off for Phillie
Damaso's Burnt Shirt - November 29, 2011
Heath Bell (a flyball pitcher with a slightly diminished fastball) pitching the AL East?
With all those small BPs including Skydome… yeah, that’ll work.
Damaso's Burnt Shirt - November 29, 2011
Marmol is the only name mentioned I'd consider... but he's got some serious control issues
The Red Sox and Yanks will eat him alive.
Damaso's Burnt Shirt - November 29, 2011
Oh and Pujols's agency is in Toronto today.
Heard from a guy who knows a guy. I believe him.
TonyFernandezSavedMyLife - November 29, 2011
Pujols sighting!
Minor Leaguer - November 29, 2011
looks sharp!
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
My heart rate picked up a little bit when I saw that. Even though it’s like 1000-1 against
MjwW - November 29, 2011
Mine didn’t pick up. it stopped for a second there…
HESS2479 - November 29, 2011
I threw-up in my mouth a little bit from the shock
of seeing that. Thanks a bunch but I deserved it.
It could happen.
TonyFernandezSavedMyLife - November 29, 2011
that's Yunel right?
benk - November 29, 2011
it might be Yunel, and it might be Pujols after a serious Tan-Job…
HESS2479 - November 29, 2011
and shrink-job
benk - November 29, 2011
throw this around on twitter
lets start a good rumour
Bowling_Guy25 - November 29, 2011
On mlbtr, they state Broxton signed with the Royals
Does this mean another season with FF?
Damaso's Burnt Shirt - November 29, 2011
Damn
Too bad. Jannsen for closer
Pikachu - November 29, 2011 via mobile
there are worse things than another season with FF
HESS2479 - November 29, 2011
i think we'll be taking the draft pick
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
Do we still get a pick if Franky signs elsewhere?
I thought the new CBA eliminated compensation picks for relievers. Thus the finger pointing and laughing at Philly for the Papelbon signing. Aside from the obvious reason of course.
transmogrifier - November 29, 2011
Some changes to this years compensation system is in place
all Type A relievers signed do not cause teams to give up their 1st round pick, however because the Phillies signed before the new CBA was in place, they do lose their 1st round pick. There were no changes to Type B free agents this year, so FF was not affected and we still get the pick if he signs elsewhere. Next year, it all goes away.
Playoffs!!!!1 - November 29, 2011
Thanks for clarifying!
transmogrifier - November 29, 2011
Why would he sign there?
Is he local to KC?
TonyFernandezSavedMyLife - November 29, 2011
Probably better opportunity. Closer to his home in Georgia.
Damaso's Burnt Shirt - November 29, 2011
perhaps he thought they would pay him the most $$$
SuckaMD - November 29, 2011
Doubtful
Rangers are interested in FF, and for the sake of the pick, I would be very surprised if AA signs him if FF does not accept arbitration
Playoffs!!!!1 - November 29, 2011
For $5m at most? I would have gladly done that if I was AA.
Jevant - November 29, 2011
I agree – but I believe that part of Broxton’s criteria was being as close to home (in the south) as possible.
MjwW - November 29, 2011
If the Jays moved Rasmus and were looking for a CF to fill in until Gose is ready, they could take a gamble on Aoki from the Yakult Swallows (my adopted team). Former Japan League Batting champ/Gold Glove centre fielder with a .329 career average. Gap power and contact hitter with speed. He’s going to be posted this offseason. 29 years old and wants to try his luck in the majors. I don’t know what his posting fee will be like but I doubt it will be too much – nowhere near Darvish money. I doubt he hits .330 in North America but a better option than Davis in CF.
I’d love to be able to wear my Aoki Blue Jays jersey at Jingu stadium and my Aoki Swallows jersey when I’m at the Skydome. But mostly it would mean that they would show the occasional Jays game on Japanese TV. I’m sick of Seattle and Boston.
tanoki - November 29, 2011 via iPhone app
NBL tri fecta
Aoki, Nakajima and Darvish
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
NPB
not NBL
Pikachu - November 29, 2011 via mobile
it was a poor guess
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
walks a lot, doesn't strike out
decent power for a CF. might not be a bad idea actually
benk - November 29, 2011
Broxton's signing
Does’nt that make Soria redundant ?
jgadfly - November 29, 2011
goin there to set-up
only $4m too. There was a suggestion he wanted to stay in the South – closer to his Georgia home.
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
mad
He’s mad to want to pitch for the Royals
spud77 - November 29, 2011
why
good pitcher’s ballpark. Pretty good defense behind him. AL Central.
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
The franchise is a joke
How many years have they been “rebuilding” now? The number of top5 picks they’ve had in the past 10 years they should be contending, especially in the AL Central, but they always seem to (have to?) watch their young players go before they can get any kind of momentum.
spud77 - November 29, 2011
He's not pitching in KC to win
He’s pitching there to rebuild his value
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
fair enough
spud77 - November 29, 2011
I'm mostly just bitter
;) I wanted us to sign Broxton
spud77 - November 29, 2011
One of many things I can't figure out
Why doesn’t Boston announce who their new mgr. is ? Is Farrell still in their mix ?
Silly Rumour #201 … Scutaro
Silly half Rumour #202 … Escobar & d’Arnaud to Philly … Toronto receives ?
jgadfly - November 29, 2011
where’d you hear these silly rumours?
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
Hamels would be the answer to #202
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
Hell no
Pikachu - November 29, 2011 via mobile
well, like it or not, it would have to be the answer
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
Why so opposed to Hamels?
He’s a pretty good pitcher and not that old.
JaysfanDL - November 29, 2011
Escobqr alone is worth more than Hamels
Hamels has 1 year left before a huge payday
Pikachu - November 29, 2011 via mobile
an overpayday
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
It's really silly season
When we’re talking discussing trading Escobar. We already don’t have a 2B for next year, so it makes a ton of sense to create a second hole on the middle IF.
Philadelphia getting rid of Hamel? Makes no sense for a team trying to win next year.
Trading Rasmus, coming off a downyear? Only makes sense it you think Rasmus really isn’t that good, in which case why acquire him 4 months ago at the cost of Rzep, 2 supplemental picks (Frasor + Dotel), $7M salary dump to Teahen and Zach Stewart,
MjwW - November 29, 2011
Haha, you're right
Thanks for keeping us from going too far down the rabbit hole. Pikachu, please ignore my Hamels/Escobar comps.
JaysfanDL - November 29, 2011
Lol
I see this 15 seconds too late for my response.
MjwW - November 29, 2011
No worries
I may overrate Hech a little in my projections. I think he could be an Ozzie Smith type, super D with just enough bat to carry him at SS. FWIW, I want to see Hech and Escobar turning double plays for the next few years.
JaysfanDL - November 29, 2011
Hamels 4.9 fWAR, Escobar 4.3 fWAR
Of course, pitcher and batter WAR don’t match up that well. Hamels strikes out a lot (K/9 of about 8), doesn’t walk many (BB/9 of 1.8) and gets a lot of groundballs. We also have a replacement SS in Hech.
I don’t think the Phillies would do that though.
JaysfanDL - November 29, 2011
Is that a joke? We’re going to replace a top-10 shortstop with a guy who couldn’t hit in Double-freaking-A? This is absurd. Escobar is under control for 4 years, very affordable. Hamels a FA next year.
MjwW - November 29, 2011
I agree
with that contract the Phillies would have to offer Hamels+ to equal value which isn’t going to happen.
ABsteve - November 29, 2011
If ?… Philadelphia’s window will have a big hole in it if Rollins ( 5 years $60- 75M) signs elsewhere and will require a competant affordable shortstop … Worley pitched fairly well and could move up in their rotation rankings… Also Phillies have similar doubts about Brown as Toronto has with Snider
jgadfly - November 29, 2011
I don't get what that has to do with the Jays trading Escobar
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
Okay, so suppose that Rollins signs elsewhere – so they trade Hamels for Escobar, assuming they could. Now they have a whole in the rotation. Zero sum game.
MjwW - November 29, 2011
Escobar costs $5M for the next 4 years
Hamels will easily triple that
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
Hamels will easily triple that
Do you not think that Toronto could afford that ?
jgadfly - November 29, 2011
why do you want to pay triple the price for moderately similar production?
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
how many 4.9 fWar pitchers do Toronto have ?
jgadfly - November 29, 2011
How many 4.3 fWAR shortstops that cost $5M a year through 2015 do Toronto have
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
Good answer !
jgadfly - November 29, 2011
Toronto could have the money ... Phillie doesn't
Would you be reluctant to trade Escobar if the Jays had Scutaro or even Reyes lined up and waiting in the wings ? When the Jays talk about upgrading their talent will they not also be raising their budget ?
jgadfly - November 29, 2011
"When the Jays talk about upgrading their talent will they not also be raising their budget ?"
Going from Escobar to Hamels isn’t exactly upgrading talent, just a whole lot of raising budget
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
Phillies wouldn't do that?
no way
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
What if they would ?
Would you ? … Would AA ?
jgadfly - November 29, 2011
I wouldn't
I’m not AA so I wouldn’t know what he’d do, but I’d assume he wouldn’t as well
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
but ...
with the new CA the Jays just had their method of collecting talent for dollars curtailed … what alternate route do they have now ?
jgadfly - November 29, 2011
#202
I’d say we’d have to get at least Hamels + Jesse Biddle + Sebastian Valle and Jiwan James
Brando159 - November 29, 2011
Over the Monster: Bobby Valentine To Manage Red Sox
Scratch Silly Rumour #201
Scratch Silly Rumour #202
That house of cards came tumbling down … back to the drawing boards …
jgadfly - November 29, 2011
just saw an article
that the supposed rumor is centered around rasmus for joakim soria.
ddbumpus - November 29, 2011 via mobile
linky linky?
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
really
ugh
benk - November 29, 2011
sounds made up to me
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
http://kansascity.sbnation.com/kansas-city-royals/2011/11/29/2596062/royals-rumors-joakim-soria-for-colby-rasmus-trade-in-works
ddbumpus - November 29, 2011
Massive overpay for a closer
If they’re offering Hosmer, that gets a lot more interesting.
JaysfanDL - November 29, 2011
Rasmus + Lind for Hosmer + Soria? Who says no?
7-9nomore - November 29, 2011
I'd say KC
But they do have depth at 1B right? And isn’t Wil Meyers projected to end up at 1st?
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
Wil Myers was moved from C to RF
Of course, I don’t know how well he plays in the OF. Moustakas may not last at 3B either.
JaysfanDL - November 29, 2011
I d
Chris McC - November 29, 2011 via mobile
KC
no chance that goes through
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
I knew what you meant my man.
No worries :-)
ddbumpus - November 29, 2011
links back to the Elliot article
with the new authors ideas thrown in..it’s like a runaway ball of BS picking up size as it rolls downhill lol.
ABsteve - November 29, 2011
Isn't that what Elliott's source is doing ?
jgadfly - November 29, 2011
That would be awful.
AA is not that dumb.
Jevant - November 29, 2011
I love reading about Jays rumours in the off-season
I need something to fill the void but I never get worried about bad trade rumours anymore. A ninja employs the art of deception, distracting his opponents, then striking where they least expect.
ABsteve - November 29, 2011
So far it seems that
When there are so many rumors floating around about what the Jays will do, that is usually when AA comes through with a blockbuster deal no-one saw coming. Hopefully that is the case now.
Playoffs!!!!1 - November 29, 2011
ChiSox open to tradinf Thornton
Jays should look into that
Pikachu - November 29, 2011 via mobile
Danks, Thornton and Beckham
for pile o’ prospects
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
I'll take a look at Beckham,
Loved him his rookie season. Helped me win my fantasy league :-)
ddbumpus - November 29, 2011
Would prefer Floyd to Danks.
Jevant - November 29, 2011
Thornton ?
I’d prefer Bastardo …
jgadfly - November 29, 2011
from Callis
http://ht.ly/7IDHn
some interesting detail. The Top 10 rounds cost $192m last year and the cap is at about $185m this year, depending on comp picks. So it seems to be at the same amount.
ayjackson - November 29, 2011
And the other consideration is that last year’s draft was considered really strong, next year not so much. So less quality, less money means teams can still spend on actual quality.
Other interesting point is that the Beede pick will now be protected for next year – so we don;t need to worry about drafting a college player for fear of not being able to sign the player and losing the pick.
MjwW - November 29, 2011
All of this speculation is ridiculous:
1: Bob Elliot is not a trusted source
2. NO WAY Jays trade Rasmus, after everything AA did to acquire him, and the years he spent coveting him, no way he gets traded for a closer when there are so many FA closers available.
3. Drabek could go – but why trade him at his lowest value?
4. D’Arnaud could go – but would have to be for a top tier pitcher, Garza or Gio, but why not get rid of other pieces of organizational depth, instead of your number one prospect?
5. AA is too smart to do any of this
The man is a genius, he’s analyzed the free agent market for years to come, and is only going to make trades for positions that are extremely weak in the market, i.e. CF
This was his reasoning in the Brett Wallace deal, which most people criticized at the time, including myself.
In AA I trust.
Beleaf - November 29, 2011
good points all
JaysfanDL - November 29, 2011
Having said that...
I do love Blue Jay rumours!!!
Beleaf - November 29, 2011
Drabek
we don’t know if his value is at its lowest. If he has a few more seasons of not finding the plate, his value will be lower.
Woodman663 - November 29, 2011
eh
it’s pretty close to rock bottom right now.
Pikachu - November 29, 2011
I disagree
At this point, his current value is at its lowest point, but his potential future value is still relatively high since he is still young. As Woodman says, a couple more seasons of futility trying to hit the plate, and that future value will also be extremely low.
Playoffs!!!!1 - November 29, 2011
0. It’s the Toronto Sun.
Minor Leaguer - November 29, 2011
i wish i could rec this 100 times
Bowling_Guy25 - November 29, 2011
I wouldn't trade d'Arnaud for Gonzalez nor Garza
6 cost-controlled years of a potential elite position player for one or three years of a pretty good but not elite pitcher? nah
benk - November 29, 2011
Neither would I...
It’s easy to throw top prospects’ names out there, but the beauty of the Jays system is the organizational DEPTH, which means prospects out of our top 10, who would rank in other team’s top 10. The only hint we can get from AA is to look at the future year’s FA crop, and the thinnest market for a particular position, and he will make trades to fill those areas. This makes me think a trade for a 2B or SP is in the works.
Beleaf - November 29, 2011
In addition..
Just checked the 2013 free agents, lots of SP available.
Beleaf - November 29, 2011
there always is two years out
that won’t materialize.
ABsteve - November 29, 2011
Can't see any of this
Being fact. I’m sure there will be a dumb rumor every day this week. Usually with the Jays sending something of value to another team for something of little value……because we all know AA gets “fleeced” in deals.
Keith72 - November 29, 2011 via mobile
Hobbes' Holland
In a fanshot that hasn’t gotten much attention, Hobbes references a rumour that it might not be Soria who will be made available from the Royals’ pen, but Holland. They have a good point: Soria with Broxton setting up puts Holland farther down the depth chart. The Royals’ pen is pretty deep now, but their starting pitching is very weak. We might be a good match, perhaps sending Cecil (or Litsch? but not likely) for Holland or Crowe. Holland might be a real find: 11.2K/9 vs. 2.?BB/9 with a 1.85 ERA; very impressive. 26 yrs old under team control until 2016.
spud77 - November 30, 2011
I could go for this
Cecil for Holland, that is
But then I’m not convinced about Cecil’s long term viability as a starter so it’s a reliever for reliever swap in my eyes. Other people will see it differently.
siggian - November 30, 2011
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