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It is the season for silly rumors.

Bob Elliot has a piece up in the Sun talking to a 'baseball evaluator' about what the Blue Jays should be doing. Among the points:

"The Blue Jays have the money, their best option is Heath Bell," said one evaluator familiar with the closing landscape.

Oh please no. Bell pitched well for the Padres, in the best pitcher's park in baseball, in the easiest division in baseball. He's 34 and his numbers have been falling off, as often happens to pitchers moving into their mid-30's. Can you imagine giving him a 4-year, B.J. Ryan type contract? I don't know who Elliot's evaluator is but I hope he isn't working for the Jays.  

The Jays have explored trading for relievers Huston Street of the Colorado Rockies and Oakland's Andrew Bailey. Carlos Marmol of the Cubs is also available.

I like all 3 better than Bell.

Insiders say Jays president Paul Beeston is not a fan of the current posting system in place which sees teams pay anywhere from $50-to-$100 million to the Nippon Ham Fighters for just the right to negotiate with right-hander Yu Darvish. Consider the Jays interest lukewarm.

You figure Beeston would be going around telling folks how much he wants Darvish and how the Jays plan bid high on him? Course not. Does that mean that the Jays aren't interested in Yu? Nope. 

The New York Yankees are interested in right-hander Kyle Drabek...

Uh huh. I imagine a lot of teams would be interested in Drabek hoping that the Jays might be willing to sell low. I doubt they will. And no, the Yankees won't offer Jesus Montero for Kyle, they ain't stupid. 

The Royals (are) looking at Colby Rasmus of the Jays.

They better be willing to give up a lot. We'd almost have to get a CF back somewhere. Anthony Gose isn't ready and I don't think we want to go into next year with Rajai Davis.

The Phillies have discussed possible ways on how to re-acquire catcher Travis D'Araund from the Jays. Good luck.

I'm sure there isn't a team in baseball that wouldn't like to find a way to get Travis. He's a pretty terrific prospect. We'd have to get a heck of a lot back. 

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Comments

Rasmus to the Royals?

What an odd proposition. AA will always look for a way to get greater value, but it’s not like Rasmus built up his value in the two months he played for the Jays. Still, the Jays are in a better negotiating position than the La Russa-compromised Cardinals were, and the Royals do have a deep and interesting minor league system, with Wil Myers, Cheslor Cuthbert and Jake Odorizzi all being good potential centrepieces to a trade.

I think this would be an interesting route to explore

Why not play with the idea? As you mentioned the Royals are loaded with young, talented players. Imagine if we could somehow pry Myers out of their system.

One interesting question I have for all my fellow banterers is:
Would you trade Drabek, TD and Gose back to Philly for Doc right now?
Considering the respective positions of our Jays and of the Phillies, with all the questions surrounding Hamels’ extension trading Doc to replenish their system with ready or near-MLB prospects all the while freeing up some cash to sign Hamels plus we all know our need for a front-end starter whom just happens to be locked up for a few more years…
Kind of crazy to think about but it actually makes some sense on both sides.

Hamels for D'arnaud?

Plus whatever pieces make it balance out. Maybe the jays demand to negotiate an extension first.

Blergh
It really doesn't make any sense

Philly has a team to win now – that’s why they paid big money to get Papelbon, even though that contract could look really bad in a couple years.

It makes no sense to give up a frontline starter in his prime when you are a Worls Series contender. Sure d’Arnaud could help them, and relatively soon – but only if they could get him for pieces that aren;t needed right now. We’re talking guys in the low minors, and possible a headliner like Dom Brown, who Philly apparently isn’t terribly inclined to give a full time gig to.

Rather not

The Royals just traded their CF (Melky Cabrera) to make room for CF prospect Lorenzo Cain as well… doesn’t really make sense.

closers

I do see us going after someone who has closing experience and potential (and perhaps 2; one to set up and take over in case of injury / long-term). It won’t be Bell, Madson or Papelbon (even if he were still available). It’s not likely to be Bailey or K-Rod, as the price seems too high. I imagine we’ll consider Francisco Cordero, Jonathan Broxton (set-up), and if Cordero signs elsewhere or asks for too much we’ll try to trade for Marmol (if he is really available) or Street. I wonder how Chad Cordero is doing in his recovery from surgery. Does anyone know if we still have him signed?

Given the number of closers on the market

I think there’s a good chance the market really cools down, and the Jays get decent value for K-Rod or Cordero or Madson near the end of the off-season. There can’t be that many teams that still think that any closer, even Papelbon is worth 4/50 with a vesting option. Of course, it’s rightly said that no-one ever went hungry betting on the stupidity of their fellow men.

K-Rod

Was offered arbitration by Milwaukee so he’s not likely to take a pay cut. If he doesn’t like the offers he’s getting, he’ll take arbitration and make his $10 mil or so next year.

Markets develop

K-Rod would not be the first player to overestimate the demand for his services. Anyways, while I said there’s a good chance the market for top relievers deflates, there’s probably a better chance it doesn’t.

Chad Cordero

THe Jays released him back in May

Francisco Cordero

Though, looking at his stats, he looks to be well into his decline.

also looking like he'll cost +$10M a year

we should of merged frank francisco and chad cordero whenwe had the chance

should have

:P

no it's should of

Nope.

should of

know have

support are troops

ugh

morans

Favourite.

Are children our are future
Probably this way

Pronouced like “should of”
Written like “should’ve” (for should have)

god you guys our boring
gobbledy gook

Elliot’s speculation is flighty.. but there are a couple of nuggets in there if they are true. One being Marmol’s availability, and the other being the Orioles’ hiring of Gary Rajsich as their scouting director. That may be related to the Jays’ earlier hiring of Chuck LaMar.

If Gobbledy Gook is the same as Caa Caa

I agree whole heartily

something like that

but where I’m from caacaa means s**t so I didn’t want to get censored ;)

I think that I come from the same place…

But “gobbledy gook” has a better ring to it.

Rajsich used to work with Dan Duquette and the O
O's need a scouting director since their last one took off for Phillie
Heath Bell (a flyball pitcher with a slightly diminished fastball) pitching the AL East?

With all those small BPs including Skydome… yeah, that’ll work.

Marmol is the only name mentioned I'd consider... but he's got some serious control issues

The Red Sox and Yanks will eat him alive.

Oh and Pujols's agency is in Toronto today.

Heard from a guy who knows a guy. I believe him.

On mlbtr, they state Broxton signed with the Royals

Does this mean another season with FF?

Damn

Too bad. Jannsen for closer

there are worse things than another season with FF
i think we'll be taking the draft pick
Do we still get a pick if Franky signs elsewhere?

I thought the new CBA eliminated compensation picks for relievers. Thus the finger pointing and laughing at Philly for the Papelbon signing. Aside from the obvious reason of course.

Some changes to this years compensation system is in place

all Type A relievers signed do not cause teams to give up their 1st round pick, however because the Phillies signed before the new CBA was in place, they do lose their 1st round pick. There were no changes to Type B free agents this year, so FF was not affected and we still get the pick if he signs elsewhere. Next year, it all goes away.

Thanks for clarifying!
Why would he sign there?

Is he local to KC?

Probably better opportunity. Closer to his home in Georgia.
perhaps he thought they would pay him the most $$$
Doubtful

Rangers are interested in FF, and for the sake of the pick, I would be very surprised if AA signs him if FF does not accept arbitration

For $5m at most? I would have gladly done that if I was AA.

I agree – but I believe that part of Broxton’s criteria was being as close to home (in the south) as possible.

If the Jays moved Rasmus and were looking for a CF to fill in until Gose is ready, they could take a gamble on Aoki from the Yakult Swallows (my adopted team). Former Japan League Batting champ/Gold Glove centre fielder with a .329 career average. Gap power and contact hitter with speed. He’s going to be posted this offseason. 29 years old and wants to try his luck in the majors. I don’t know what his posting fee will be like but I doubt it will be too much – nowhere near Darvish money. I doubt he hits .330 in North America but a better option than Davis in CF.
I’d love to be able to wear my Aoki Blue Jays jersey at Jingu stadium and my Aoki Swallows jersey when I’m at the Skydome. But mostly it would mean that they would show the occasional Jays game on Japanese TV. I’m sick of Seattle and Boston.

NBL tri fecta

Aoki, Nakajima and Darvish

NPB

not NBL

it was a poor guess
walks a lot, doesn't strike out

decent power for a CF. might not be a bad idea actually

Broxton's signing

 Does’nt that make Soria redundant ?

goin there to set-up

only $4m too. There was a suggestion he wanted to stay in the South – closer to his Georgia home.

mad

He’s mad to want to pitch for the Royals

why

good pitcher’s ballpark. Pretty good defense behind him. AL Central.

The franchise is a joke

How many years have they been “rebuilding” now? The number of top5 picks they’ve had in the past 10 years they should be contending, especially in the AL Central, but they always seem to (have to?) watch their young players go before they can get any kind of momentum.

He's not pitching in KC to win

He’s pitching there to rebuild his value

fair enough
I'm mostly just bitter

;) I wanted us to sign Broxton

One of many things I can't figure out

 Why doesn’t Boston announce who their new mgr. is ? Is Farrell still in their mix ?

Silly Rumour #201 … Scutaro

Silly half Rumour #202 … Escobar & d’Arnaud to Philly … Toronto receives ?

where’d you hear these silly rumours?

Hamels would be the answer to #202

Hell no
well, like it or not, it would have to be the answer
Why so opposed to Hamels?

He’s a pretty good pitcher and not that old.

Escobqr alone is worth more than Hamels

Hamels has 1 year left before a huge payday

an overpayday
It's really silly season

When we’re talking discussing trading Escobar. We already don’t have a 2B for next year, so it makes a ton of sense to create a second hole on the middle IF.

Philadelphia getting rid of Hamel? Makes no sense for a team trying to win next year.

Trading Rasmus, coming off a downyear? Only makes sense it you think Rasmus really isn’t that good, in which case why acquire him 4 months ago at the cost of Rzep, 2 supplemental picks (Frasor + Dotel), $7M salary dump to Teahen and Zach Stewart,

Haha, you're right

Thanks for keeping us from going too far down the rabbit hole. Pikachu, please ignore my Hamels/Escobar comps.

Lol

I see this 15 seconds too late for my response.

No worries

I may overrate Hech a little in my projections. I think he could be an Ozzie Smith type, super D with just enough bat to carry him at SS. FWIW, I want to see Hech and Escobar turning double plays for the next few years.

Hamels 4.9 fWAR, Escobar 4.3 fWAR

Of course, pitcher and batter WAR don’t match up that well. Hamels strikes out a lot (K/9 of about 8), doesn’t walk many (BB/9 of 1.8) and gets a lot of groundballs. We also have a replacement SS in Hech.

I don’t think the Phillies would do that though.

We also have a replacement SS in Hech.

Is that a joke? We’re going to replace a top-10 shortstop with a guy who couldn’t hit in Double-freaking-A? This is absurd. Escobar is under control for 4 years, very affordable. Hamels a FA next year.

I agree

with that contract the Phillies would have to offer Hamels+ to equal value which isn’t going to happen.

If ?… Philadelphia’s window will have a big hole in it if Rollins ( 5 years $60- 75M) signs elsewhere and will require a competant affordable shortstop … Worley pitched fairly well and could move up in their rotation rankings… Also Phillies have similar doubts about Brown as Toronto has with Snider

I don't get what that has to do with the Jays trading Escobar

Okay, so suppose that Rollins signs elsewhere – so they trade Hamels for Escobar, assuming they could. Now they have a whole in the rotation. Zero sum game.

Escobar costs $5M for the next 4 years

Hamels will easily triple that

Hamels will easily triple that

  Do you not think that Toronto could afford that ?

why do you want to pay triple the price for moderately similar production?
how many 4.9 fWar pitchers do Toronto have ?
How many 4.3 fWAR shortstops that cost $5M a year through 2015 do Toronto have
Good answer !
Toronto could have the money ... Phillie doesn't

Would you be reluctant to trade Escobar if the Jays had Scutaro or even Reyes lined up and waiting in the wings ? When the Jays talk about upgrading their talent will they not also be raising their budget ?

"When the Jays talk about upgrading their talent will they not also be raising their budget ?"

Going from Escobar to Hamels isn’t exactly upgrading talent, just a whole lot of raising budget

Phillies wouldn't do that?

no way

What if they would ?

 Would you ? … Would AA ?

I wouldn't

I’m not AA so I wouldn’t know what he’d do, but I’d assume he wouldn’t as well

but ...

 with the new CA the Jays just had their method of collecting talent for dollars curtailed … what alternate route do they have now ?

#202

I’d say we’d have to get at least Hamels + Jesse Biddle + Sebastian Valle and Jiwan James

Over the Monster: Bobby Valentine To Manage Red Sox

Scratch Silly Rumour #201
Scratch Silly Rumour #202
That house of cards came tumbling down … back to the drawing boards …

just saw an article

that the supposed rumor is centered around rasmus for joakim soria.

really

ugh

sounds made up to me

http://kansascity.sbnation.com/kansas-city-royals/2011/11/29/2596062/royals-rumors-joakim-soria-for-colby-rasmus-trade-in-works

Massive overpay for a closer

If they’re offering Hosmer, that gets a lot more interesting.

Rasmus + Lind for Hosmer + Soria? Who says no?

I'd say KC

But they do have depth at 1B right? And isn’t Wil Meyers projected to end up at 1st?

Wil Myers was moved from C to RF

Of course, I don’t know how well he plays in the OF. Moustakas may not last at 3B either.

KC

no chance that goes through

btw, didn't mean you made it up; meant the writer made it up
I knew what you meant my man.

No worries :-)

links back to the Elliot article

with the new authors ideas thrown in..it’s like a runaway ball of BS picking up size as it rolls downhill lol.

Isn't that what Elliott's source is doing ?
That would be awful.

AA is not that dumb.

I love reading about Jays rumours in the off-season

I need something to fill the void but I never get worried about bad trade rumours anymore. A ninja employs the art of deception, distracting his opponents, then striking where they least expect.

So far it seems that

When there are so many rumors floating around about what the Jays will do, that is usually when AA comes through with a blockbuster deal no-one saw coming. Hopefully that is the case now.

ChiSox open to tradinf Thornton

Jays should look into that

Danks, Thornton and Beckham

for pile o’ prospects

I'll take a look at Beckham,

Loved him his rookie season. Helped me win my fantasy league :-)

Would prefer Floyd to Danks.
Thornton ?

 I’d prefer Bastardo …

from Callis

http://ht.ly/7IDHn

some interesting detail. The Top 10 rounds cost $192m last year and the cap is at about $185m this year, depending on comp picks. So it seems to be at the same amount.

And the other consideration is that last year’s draft was considered really strong, next year not so much. So less quality, less money means teams can still spend on actual quality.

Other interesting point is that the Beede pick will now be protected for next year – so we don;t need to worry about drafting a college player for fear of not being able to sign the player and losing the pick.

All of this speculation is ridiculous:

1: Bob Elliot is not a trusted source
2. NO WAY Jays trade Rasmus, after everything AA did to acquire him, and the years he spent coveting him, no way he gets traded for a closer when there are so many FA closers available.
3. Drabek could go – but why trade him at his lowest value?
4. D’Arnaud could go – but would have to be for a top tier pitcher, Garza or Gio, but why not get rid of other pieces of organizational depth, instead of your number one prospect?
5. AA is too smart to do any of this

The man is a genius, he’s analyzed the free agent market for years to come, and is only going to make trades for positions that are extremely weak in the market, i.e. CF

This was his reasoning in the Brett Wallace deal, which most people criticized at the time, including myself.

In AA I trust.

good points all
Having said that...

I do love Blue Jay rumours!!!

Drabek

we don’t know if his value is at its lowest. If he has a few more seasons of not finding the plate, his value will be lower.

eh

it’s pretty close to rock bottom right now.

I disagree

At this point, his current value is at its lowest point, but his potential future value is still relatively high since he is still young. As Woodman says, a couple more seasons of futility trying to hit the plate, and that future value will also be extremely low.

I wouldn't trade d'Arnaud for Gonzalez nor Garza

6 cost-controlled years of a potential elite position player for one or three years of a pretty good but not elite pitcher? nah

Neither would I...

It’s easy to throw top prospects’ names out there, but the beauty of the Jays system is the organizational DEPTH, which means prospects out of our top 10, who would rank in other team’s top 10. The only hint we can get from AA is to look at the future year’s FA crop, and the thinnest market for a particular position, and he will make trades to fill those areas. This makes me think a trade for a 2B or SP is in the works.

In addition..

Just checked the 2013 free agents, lots of SP available.

there always is two years out

that won’t materialize.

Can't see any of this

Being fact. I’m sure there will be a dumb rumor every day this week. Usually with the Jays sending something of value to another team for something of little value……because we all know AA gets “fleeced” in deals.

Hobbes' Holland

In a fanshot that hasn’t gotten much attention, Hobbes references a rumour that it might not be Soria who will be made available from the Royals’ pen, but Holland. They have a good point: Soria with Broxton setting up puts Holland farther down the depth chart. The Royals’ pen is pretty deep now, but their starting pitching is very weak. We might be a good match, perhaps sending Cecil (or Litsch? but not likely) for Holland or Crowe. Holland might be a real find: 11.2K/9 vs. 2.?BB/9 with a 1.85 ERA; very impressive. 26 yrs old under team control until 2016.

I could go for this

Cecil for Holland, that is

But then I’m not convinced about Cecil’s long term viability as a starter so it’s a reliever for reliever swap in my eyes. Other people will see it differently.

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